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Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 · median of 8 books ·
57Signal · under 5.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.7 against 5.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 1 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 3 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 3 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 9 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.58 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · FD · HR · FL · PX2 · BR · BB
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 5 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 9 | over |