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Christian Watson
GB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 76.5 at DraftKings · median 75.5 ·
53Signal · under 76.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.0 a game recently
- vs DET · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 91.1 yds against 76.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 76.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -59| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CHI | 89 over | +12.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DEN | 29 under | −47.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 17 under | −59.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 113 over | +36.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIN | 147 over | +70.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NYJ | 41 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | ATL | 96 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TB | 47 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CHI | 143 over | +66.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | DAL | 64 under | −12.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 5 yds spread
- betPARX 71.5
- BetRivers 71.5
- Bally Bet 71.5
- ESPN Bet 74.5
- FanDuel 75.5
- Hard Rock Bet 75.5
- Fliff 75.5
- DraftKings 76.5
- BetMGM 76.5
- PrizePicks 76.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 73.5 to 74.5
- FliffMoved from 74.5 to 75.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 75.5 to 76.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 74.5 to 76.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs DAL | 64 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CHI | 143 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ TB | 47 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | vs ATL | 96 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NYJ | 41 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ MIN | 147 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 113 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 17 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DEN | 29 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CHI | 89 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DET | 80 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 49 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 46 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | vs PHI | 45 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 58 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 85 | over |