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Christian Watson
GB @ DET · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Bally Bet ·
52Signal · under 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 4.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | CHI | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DEN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIN | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NYJ | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | ATL | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TB | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CHI | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | DAL | 3 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.510 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · ESPN · BB · DK · FD · HR · FL · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs DAL | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CHI | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ TB | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | vs ATL | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NYJ | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ MIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CHI | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DET | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 4 | under |