← NFL board3 straight over
Chuba Hubbard
CAR vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 64.5 at ESPN Bet · median 65.5 ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 17.8 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 85.2 yds against 64.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 64.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -57 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | LA | 83 over | +18.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NO | 29 under | −35.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TB | 27 under | −37.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SEA | 12 under | −52.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | TB | 10 under | −54.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CHI | 49 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | ATL | 53 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE | 82 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DET | 122 over | +57.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PHI | 120 over | +55.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 67.5
- ESPN Bet 64.5
- DraftKings 65.5
- BetMGM 65.5
- Hard Rock Bet 65.5
- Fliff 65.5
- DK Pick6 65.5
- PrizePicks 65.5
- FanDuel 66.5
- betPARX 67.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 67.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 67.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 69.5 to 64.5
- BetMGMMoved from 69.5 to 65.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 70.5 to 65.5
- FliffMoved from 70.5 to 65.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 70.5 to 65.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 72.5 to 65.5
- FanDuelMoved from 70.5 to 66.5
- Bally BetMoved from 69.5 to 67.5
- betPARXMoved from 69.5 to 67.5
- BetRiversMoved from 69.5 to 67.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 64.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ PHI | 120 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DET | 122 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ CLE | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ ATL | 53 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CHI | 49 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ TB | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs SEA | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs TB | 27 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NO | 29 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LA | 83 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | @ SF | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ATL | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NO | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ GB | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs BUF | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ NYJ | 31 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NE | 49 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ATL | 73 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ ARI | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ JAX | 57 | under |