← NFL board3 straight over
Corey Kiner
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 14.5 at BetMGM ·
56%under5 / 9 · last 10
4 / 9Cleared the number in 4 of 9 games, 1 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.2 a game recently
- vs CHI · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 28.2 yds against 14.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -42 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 32 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 2 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 13 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 0 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 52 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 57 over | +42.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% under | -7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
12 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 15.5
- ESPN Bet 13.5
- DraftKings 14.5
- FanDuel 14.5
- BetMGM 14.5
- Fliff 14.5
- Hard Rock Bet 14.5
- DK Pick6 14.5
- PrizePicks 14.5
- Underdog 14.5
- betPARX 15.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 15.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 15.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 13.5 to 14.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 57 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 52 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 18 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 11 | under |