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Dak Prescott
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETPassing Yards · 263.5 at PrizePicks · median 262.5 ·
47Signal · over 263.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 41.0 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 273.2 yds against 263.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 263.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -193| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 294 over | +30.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 244 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 307 over | +43.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 70 under | −193.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 175 under | −88.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 279 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 276 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 335 over | +71.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 316 over | +52.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 258 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | -8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 9 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 259.5
- ESPN Bet 259.5 -125 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 261.5 -113
- betPARX 261.5 -113
- BetRivers 261.5 -114
- DraftKings 262.5 -113
- BetMGM 263.5 -115
- PrizePicks 263.5
- Hard Rock Bet 266.5 -115
- Fliff 266.5 -120
- FanDuel 268.5 -114
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 264.5 to 259.5
- Bally BetMoved from 263.5 to 261.5
- betPARXMoved from 263.5 to 261.5
- BetRiversMoved from 263.5 to 261.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 265.5 to 262.5
- BetMGMMoved from 260.5 to 263.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 266.5 to 263.5
- FliffMoved from 265.5 to 266.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 265.5 to 266.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 263.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 258 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 316 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 335 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 276 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 279 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 175 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 70 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 307 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 244 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 294 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 376 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 320 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 354 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 268 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 250 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 188 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 264 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 261 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 237 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 319 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 251 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 361 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 188 | under |