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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 19.5 at Bally Bet ·
50Signal · under 19.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.3 a game recently
Expected completions: 21.7 against 19.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -4.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 14 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 5 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 22 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 24 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 24 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 22 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
19.58 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · MGM · BB · DK · FL · HR · PP
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 22 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 24 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 19 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 22 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 24 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 22 | over |