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Daniel Jones
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 33.5 at Fanatics ·
49Signal · under 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 36.3 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 36.3 against 33.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -10.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | ATL | 26 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | KC | 31 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | HOU | 27 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | JAX | 7 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 31 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 31 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 36 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 34 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 44 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 42 over | +8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +2.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
33.58 books, no line disagreementDK · FAN · FL · HR · PX2 · BB · PP · UD
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 30.5 to 33.5
- UnderdogMoved from 30.5 to 33.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 42 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 44 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 31 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 27 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 31 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 26 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 29 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 25 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 34 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 29 | under |