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DeMario Douglas
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at DraftKings ·
70%under7 / 10 · last 10
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.3 against 3.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 7 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
3.511 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · FD · PX2 · BR · MGM · BB · FL · HR · PK6 · PP
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 2.5 to 3.5
- betPARXMoved from 2.5 to 3.5
- BetRiversMoved from 2.5 to 3.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 2.5 to 3.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 2.5 to 3.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 7 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 2 | under |