← NFL board
Devaughn Vele
NO vs PIT · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 at DraftKings · median 41.5 ·
48Signal · over 40.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
- vs PIT · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 48.7 yds against 40.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -14| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | ATL | 37 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | MIA | 93 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | TB | 40 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CAR | 69 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | DET | 69 over | +28.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | BAL | 64 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LV | 39 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ATL | 54 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIN | 26 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYG | 42 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 39.5
- ESPN Bet 39.5 -120 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 40.5 -112
- Fanatics 40.5 -115
- betPARX 41.5 -112
- BetRivers 41.5 -113
- FanDuel 41.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 41.5 -115
- Bally Bet 41.5 -117
- Fliff 41.5 -120
- PrizePicks 41.5
- BetMGM 43.5 -115
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 41.5 to 40.5
- Bally BetMoved from 42.5 to 41.5
- betPARXMoved from 42.5 to 41.5
- BetRiversMoved from 42.5 to 41.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 44.5 to 41.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ NYG | 42 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs MIN | 26 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | vs ATL | 54 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LV | 39 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ BAL | 64 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ DET | 69 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CAR | 69 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ TB | 40 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ MIA | 93 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs ATL | 37 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ CAR | 15 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TB | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NYG | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SF | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs ARI | 13 | under |