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DJ Moore
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 54.5 at Bally Bet · median 55.5 ·
57Signal · under 54.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 45.9 yds against 54.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 54.5 · Nov 28, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -45 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 17 under | −37.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | -4 under | −58.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 69 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 97 over | +42.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 7 under | −47.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 11 under | −43.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 100 over | +45.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | DET | 0 under | −54.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 67 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 11 under | −43.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +17 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 59.5
- betPARX 54.5
- BetRivers 54.5
- Bally Bet 54.5
- FanDuel 55.5
- BetMGM 55.5
- Hard Rock Bet 55.5
- Fliff 55.5
- PrizePicks 55.5
- DraftKings 57.5
- DK Pick6 57.5
- ESPN Bet 59.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 54.5 to 55.5
- FanDuelMoved from 54.5 to 55.5
- FliffMoved from 54.5 to 55.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 54.5 to 55.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 51.5 to 55.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 55.5 to 57.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 54.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 67 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 100 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 97 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 69 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | -4 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 64 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 72 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 73 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 43 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 42 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 38 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 46 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 68 | over |