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DJ Moore
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at BetMGM ·
60Signal · under 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.0 against 4.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 28, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | DET | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LAC | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 1 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · MGM · BB · DK · FD · ESPN · FL · HR
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LAC | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 3 | under |