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DK Metcalf
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceiving Yards · 58.5 · median of 11 books ·
57Signal · under 58.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.7 a game recently
- vs NO · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 52.2 yds against 58.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 58.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -89 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | BUF | 32 under | −26.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | BAL | 148 over | +89.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 55 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 42 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 40 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 27 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 31 under | −27.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 115 over | +56.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 12 under | −46.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 93 over | +34.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 59.5
- betPARX 58.5
- BetRivers 58.5
- FanDuel 58.5
- BetMGM 58.5
- Hard Rock Bet 58.5
- Bally Bet 58.5
- Fliff 58.5
- PrizePicks 58.5
- ESPN Bet 59.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 59.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 59.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 53.5 to 58.5
- BetMGMMoved from 57.5 to 58.5
- betPARXMoved from 53.5 to 58.5
- BetRiversMoved from 53.5 to 58.5
- FanDuelMoved from 54.5 to 58.5
- FliffMoved from 54.5 to 58.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 54.5 to 58.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 58.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 54.5 to 59.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 58.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 93 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 115 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 27 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 40 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 42 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 55 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 148 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 32 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 49 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 55 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 50 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 95 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 126 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 32 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 20 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 83 | over |