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DK Metcalf
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceptions · 4.5 · median of 9 books ·
52Signal · under 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.0 against 4.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -6.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | BUF | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | BAL | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 11 over | +6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementMGM · PX2 · BR · FD · HR · BB · DK · ESPN · FL
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 11 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 4 | under |