← NFL board4 straight over
Jaylen Warren
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETCarries · 13.5 · median of 7 books ·
47Signal · over 13.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.0 a game recently
Expected carries: 14.0 against 13.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 13.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 12 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 14 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 12 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 14 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 10 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 11 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 17 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 17 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 15 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 14 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 2 spreadEasiest number for the over: 13.5 · best price DK -126
- DraftKings 13.5 -126 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 13.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 13.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Fliff 13.5 -140 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 14
- betPARX 15.5 +104
- Bally Bet 15.5 +100
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- FliffMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 15.5 to 13.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 15.5 to 14
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 14 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 15 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 12 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 18 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 14 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 18 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 14 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 11 | under |