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Dylan Sampson
CLE @ TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 8.5 at PrizePicks ·
53Signal · over 8.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.0 a game recently
- vs TEN · ×0.97 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 15.1 yds against 8.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 0 this season.
Last 10 games against 8.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Jan 4, 2026
Worst miss -12| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | PIT | 12 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | MIA | 8 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | NE | 0 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | NYJ | -4 under | −12.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | BAL | 19 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | LV | 23 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | SF | 23 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | TEN | 4 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PIT | 27 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CIN | 32 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 8.5
- PrizePicks 8.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 9.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 9.5 to 8.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | @ CIN | 32 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PIT | 27 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs TEN | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs SF | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LV | 23 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs BAL | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ NYJ | -4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs MIA | 8 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ PIT | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs MIN | -4 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DET | -2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs GB | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ BAL | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs CIN | 29 | over |