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George Kittle
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 at BetRivers ·
59Signal · under 5.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.3 against 5.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | CLE | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 5 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.5 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.59 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · PX2 · ESPN · FL · DK · BR · BB · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 4 | under |