← NFL board4 straight over
George Pickens
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 64.5 at ESPN Bet ·
46Signal · over 64.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.7 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 70.8 yds against 64.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 64.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -55| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 33 under | −31.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 130 over | +65.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 78 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 9 under | −55.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 28 under | −36.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 40 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 82 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 75 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 130 over | +65.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 73 over | +8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 63.5 · best price PX2 -113
- betPARX 63.5 -113 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 63.5 -114 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 63.5 -118 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 64.5 -114
- ESPN Bet 64.5 -115
- Fliff 64.5 -120
- PrizePicks 64.5
- DraftKings 65.5 -111
- Hard Rock Bet 65.5 -115
- BetMGM 66.5 -115
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 62.5 to 63.5
- betPARXMoved from 62.5 to 63.5
- BetRiversMoved from 62.5 to 63.5
- FanDuelMoved from 62.5 to 64.5
- FliffMoved from 63.5 to 64.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 69.5 to 64.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 61.5 to 65.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 62.5 to 65.5
- BetMGMMoved from 62.5 to 66.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 64.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 73 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 130 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 75 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 82 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 40 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 28 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 78 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 130 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 33 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 37 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 88 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 146 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 144 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 79 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 78 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 82 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 168 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 57 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 134 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 68 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 68 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 30 | under |