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George Pickens
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Bally Bet ·
50Signal · over 4.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.5 against 4.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 9 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 6 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spread
- betPARX 4.5
- DraftKings 4.5
- BetRivers 4.5
- ESPN Bet 4.5
- Bally Bet 4.5
- FanDuel 4.5
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5
- Fliff 4.5
- PrizePicks 5
- BetMGM 5.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 4.5 to 5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 3 | under |