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Gunnar Helm
TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at Fliff ·
59Signal · under 2.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.8 against 2.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | JAX | 6 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CLE | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYJ | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PHI | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYG | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BAL | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | HOU | 0 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
2.54 books, no line disagreementDK · FL · HR · FD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BAL | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PHI | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NYJ | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ ARI | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ DEN | 1 | under |