← NFL board10 straight over
Ian Thomas
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 ·
53Signal · over 0.5100% · 10 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
10 / 10Cleared the number in 10 of 10 games
PrizePicks 0.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.3 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.3 against 0.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Oct 5, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | IND | 3 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | TEN | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | JAX | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-17 | DAL | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | CLE | 4 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LAC | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 1 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 10 / 10 | 100% over | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
0.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 1 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 1 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 1 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 1 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 3 | over |