← NFL board4 straight over
Ashton Jeanty
LV vs LA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 25.5 · median of 11 books ·
49Signal · over 25.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs LA · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 43.0 yds against 25.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 25.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | PHI | 7 under | −18.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 60 over | +34.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 13 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | KC | 7 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | MIA | 45 over | +19.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LAC | 15 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NO | 37 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | KC | 68 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NE | 50 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BUF | 36 over | +10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 24.5
- ESPN Bet 24.5 -130 (easiest number)
- betPARX 25.5 -112
- BetRivers 25.5 -113
- FanDuel 25.5 -113
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 -115
- Bally Bet 25.5 -117
- Fliff 25.5 -125
- PrizePicks 25.5
- DraftKings 26.5 -112
- BetMGM 26.5 -120
- DK Pick6 26.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- betPARXMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- BetRiversMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 28.5 to 25.5
- BetMGMMoved from 27.5 to 26.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 25.5 to 26.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 25.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs BUF | 36 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NE | 50 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs KC | 68 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ NO | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ LAC | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs MIA | 45 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs KC | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 60 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ PHI | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 30 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 47 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 42 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 2 | under |