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Ja'Marr Chase
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 80.5 at BetMGM · median 79.5 ·
60Signal · under 80.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.6 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 59.2 yds against 80.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 80.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -51 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 44 under | −36.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 132 over | +51.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 109 over | +28.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 60 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 96 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 12 under | −68.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 75 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 98 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 27 under | −53.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 77 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 80.5
- FanDuel 79.5
- ESPN Bet 79.5
- Hard Rock Bet 79.5
- Fliff 79.5
- PrizePicks 79.5
- Underdog 79.5
- DraftKings 80.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 80.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 80.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 80.5 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 80.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 80.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 78.5 to 79.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 84.5 to 79.5
- Bally BetMoved from 79.5 to 80.5
- betPARXMoved from 79.5 to 80.5
- BetRiversMoved from 79.5 to 80.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 78.5 to 80.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 80.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 77 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 27 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 98 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 75 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 12 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 96 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 60 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 109 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 132 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 44 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 110 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 30 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 111 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 91 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 161 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 94 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 110 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 23 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 50 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 165 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 26 | under |