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Ja'Marr Chase
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 6.5 at FanDuel · median 7.5 ·
42Signal · over 6.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.4 against 6.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 6.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -4.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 5 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 10 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 9 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 8 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 2 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 7 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 9 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 3 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 6 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 6.5
- FanDuel 6.5 -172 (easiest number)
- betPARX 7.5 +118
- BetRivers 7.5 +116
- Bally Bet 7.5 +114
- Fanatics 7.5 +110
- Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +110
- DraftKings 7.5 +107
- BetMGM 7.5 +105
- ESPN Bet 7.5 +105
- Fliff 7.5 +100
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 6.5 to 7.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PIT | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CHI | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYJ | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | vs PIT | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ GB | 10 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DET | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | @ DEN | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ MIN | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 14 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 2 | under |