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Jake Ferguson
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceiving Yards · 18.5 at Fliff · median 19.5 ·
56Signal · under 18.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
- vs PHI · ×0.93 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 17.8 yds against 18.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 18.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -24 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 16 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 19 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 6 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 5 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 6 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 43 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 23 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 11 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 19 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 13 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 20.5
- DraftKings 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 18.5
- Fliff 18.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
- FanDuel 19.5
- BetMGM 19.5
- PrizePicks 19.5
- betPARX 20.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 20.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 20.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- FliffMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 20.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 18.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 13 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 23 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 43 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 6 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 6 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 19 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 58 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 60 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 29 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 33 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 49 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 40 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 82 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 78 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 23 | over |