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Jake Ferguson
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at PrizePicks ·
52Signal · under 2.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.8 against 2.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 2 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
2.511 books, no line disagreementDK · ESPN · FD · PX2 · HR · BR · MGM · FL · BB · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 13 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 9 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 5 | over |