← NFL board7 straight over
Jaylen Warren
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETReceiving Yards · 25.5 · median of 10 books ·
49Signal · over 25.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
- vs NO · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 43.9 yds against 25.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 25.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -25| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 15 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 8 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 0 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 33 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 27 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 34 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 49 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 33 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 87 over | +61.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 28 over | +2.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 23.5
- ESPN Bet 23.5 -130 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 25.5 -114
- FanDuel 25.5 -114
- betPARX 25.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 -115
- BetRivers 25.5 -117
- Fliff 25.5 -120
- Bally Bet 25.5 -121
- BetMGM 26.5 -110
- PrizePicks 26.5
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 28.5 to 23.5
- Bally BetMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- betPARXMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- BetRiversMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- FliffMoved from 26.5 to 25.5
- BetMGMMoved from 25.5 to 26.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 18.5 to 26.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 25.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 28 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 87 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 33 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 49 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 27 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 33 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 49 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 34 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 86 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 22 | under |