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Jaylen Warren
PIT @ NO · Sun 9:30 AM ETRushing Yards · 63.5 · median of 10 books ·
48Signal · over 63.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 14.0 a game recently
- vs NO · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 77.4 yds against 63.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 63.5 · Dec 15, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -30| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | MIA | 33 under | −30.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 143 over | +79.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 64 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 66 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | ATL | 46 under | −17.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NE | 43 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN | 127 over | +63.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | CLE | 93 over | +29.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | IND | 101 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TB | 50 under | −13.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 62.5
- BetMGM 62.5 -115 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 63.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 63.5 -115
- Fliff 63.5 -120
- PrizePicks 63.5
- DraftKings 64.5 -110
- ESPN Bet 64.5 -110
- betPARX 64.5 -117
- BetRivers 64.5 -117
- Bally Bet 64.5 -121
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 63.5 to 62.5
- FanDuelMoved from 66.5 to 63.5
- FliffMoved from 65.5 to 63.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 64.5 to 63.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 64.5 to 63.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 63.5 to 64.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 63.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ TB | 50 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs IND | 101 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CLE | 93 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CIN | 127 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ NE | 43 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs ATL | 46 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 64 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 143 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 33 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 68 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 62 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 70 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | 31 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 62 | under |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 127 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 52 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 47 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 48 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 37 | under |