Jaylen Wright

MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ET

Carries · 4.5 at Underdog ·

44Signal · over 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

7 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

carries: 4.0 a game recently

Expected carries: 4.0 against 4.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -3.5

Each game against 4.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	NYJ	24 over	+19.5
2025-12-15	PIT	1 under	−3.5
2025-12-21	CIN	9 over	+4.5
2025-12-28	TB	5 over	+0.5
2026-01-04	NE	13 over	+8.5
2026-09-13	LV	1 under	−3.5
2026-09-20	SF	2 under	−2.5
2026-10-04	MIN	5 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	CIN	6 over	+1.5
2026-10-25	NYJ	6 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% over	+2.7
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

4.56 books, no line disagreementESPN · HR · DK · PK6 · PP · UD· best price at 4.5: ESPN, HR -110

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 4.5
2026-10-25	@ NYJ	6	over
2026-10-11	vs CIN	6	over
2026-10-04	@ MIN	5	over
2026-09-20	@ SF	2	under
2026-09-13	@ LV	1	under
2026-01-04	@ NE	13	over
2025-12-28	vs TB	5	over
2025-12-21	vs CIN	9	over
2025-12-15	@ PIT	1	under
2025-12-07	@ NYJ	24	over
2025-11-30	vs NO	3	under
2025-11-16	vs WAS	1	under
2025-11-09	vs BUF	5	over
2025-10-26	@ ATL	9	over