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Joe Burrow
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 25.5 at BetMGM · median 24.5 ·
51Signal · under 25.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 27.0 against 25.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 25.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -13.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 25 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 25 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 25 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 24 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 29 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 25 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 20 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 28 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 39 over | +13.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 23 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 25.5
- betPARX 24.5
- BetRivers 24.5
- Bally Bet 24.5
- Fliff 24.5
- Fanatics 24.5
- DraftKings 25.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 25.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 25.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- betPARXMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- BetRiversMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 25.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 23 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 28 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 20 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 25 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 29 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 24 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 25 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 25 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 24 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 14 | under |