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Joe Burrow
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 24.5 at Fliff ·
50Signal · over 24.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently
Expected completions: 27.0 against 24.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 24.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -4.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 25 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 25 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 25 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 24 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 29 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 25 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 20 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 28 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 39 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 23 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 24.5 · best price PX2 -125
- betPARX 24.5 -125 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 24.5 -127 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 24.5 -132 (easiest number)
- Fliff 24.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 24.5 -140 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 25.5 +104
- Hard Rock Bet 25.5 +100
- BetMGM 25.5 -105
- PrizePicks 25.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- betPARXMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- BetRiversMoved from 25.5 to 24.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 23 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 39 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 28 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 20 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 25 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 29 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 24 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 25 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 25 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 25 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 24 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 14 | under |