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Joe Burrow
CIN @ BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 261.5 at Fliff ·
53Signal · over 261.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 37.8 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 272.2 yds against 261.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 261.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -71| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | BUF | 284 over | +22.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | BAL | 225 under | −36.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | MIA | 309 over | +47.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | ARI | 305 over | +43.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CLE | 236 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TB | 254 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | HOU | 207 under | −54.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT | 282 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | JAX | 428 over | +166.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | MIA | 190 under | −71.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spread
- BetMGM 259.5
- FanDuel 260.5
- Fanatics 260.5
- Hard Rock Bet 260.5
- PrizePicks 260.5
- Fliff 261.5
- ESPN Bet 262.5
- DraftKings 262.5
- Bally Bet 263.5
- betPARX 263.5
- BetRivers 263.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 274.5 to 260.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 259.5 to 262.5
- Bally BetMoved from 261.5 to 263.5
- betPARXMoved from 261.5 to 263.5
- BetRiversMoved from 261.5 to 263.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 261.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ MIA | 190 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs JAX | 428 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ PIT | 282 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ HOU | 207 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs TB | 254 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs CLE | 236 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs ARI | 305 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ MIA | 309 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BAL | 225 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BUF | 284 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | @ BAL | 261 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs JAX | 76 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ CLE | 113 | under |