John Bates

WAS vs LA · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 3.5 · median of 2 books ·

51Signal · over 3.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

8 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.5 a game recently
vs LA · ×0.92 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 6.2 yds against 3.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.

Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -3

Each game against 3.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-02	SEA	20 over	+16.5
2025-11-09	DET	6 over	+2.5
2025-11-30	DEN	9 over	+5.5
2025-12-14	NYG	19 over	+15.5
2025-12-20	PHI	0 under	−3.5
2026-01-04	PHI	13 over	+9.5
2026-09-13	PHI	13 over	+9.5
2026-09-27	SEA	9 over	+5.5
2026-10-11	NYG	1 under	−2.5
2026-10-19	SF	4 over	+0.5

The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	8 / 10	80% over	+6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

3.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 3.5
2026-10-19	@ SF	4	over
2026-10-11	vs NYG	1	under
2026-09-27	vs SEA	9	over
2026-09-13	@ PHI	13	over
2026-01-04	@ PHI	13	over
2025-12-20	vs PHI	0	under
2025-12-14	@ NYG	19	over
2025-11-30	vs DEN	9	over
2025-11-09	vs DET	6	over
2025-11-02	vs SEA	20	over
2025-10-27	@ KC	22	over
2025-10-19	@ DAL	5	over
2025-10-05	@ LAC	9	over