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John Bates
WAS vs LA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 3.5 at PrizePicks ·
51Signal · over 3.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.92 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 6.2 yds against 3.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -3| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | SEA | 20 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | DET | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | DEN | 9 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NYG | 19 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | PHI | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PHI | 13 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PHI | 13 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SEA | 9 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYG | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 4 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs SEA | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PHI | 13 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PHI | 13 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NYG | 19 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | 20 | over |
| 2025-10-27 | @ KC | 22 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ LAC | 9 | over |