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Jordan Mason
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 11.5 at Fliff ·
58Signal · under 11.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 9.7 a game recently
Expected carries: 9.7 against 11.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Sep 13, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | DET | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | BAL | 4 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CHI | 6 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | GB | 8 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 6 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 11 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 2 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | GB | 14 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 15 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +2.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
3 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 12.5
- DraftKings 11.5
- Fliff 11.5
- Hard Rock Bet 12.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 15 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs GB | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs PHI | 15 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CLE | 13 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ PIT | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs CIN | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 15 | over |