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Jordan Watkins
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
49Signal · under 1.575% · 3 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 4Cleared the number in 1 of 4 games, 6 without a result
- Mike Evans WR is listed Out (ribs). He had 23% of SF's targets this season, 6.5 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.5 a game recently → 2.5 this game
- Evans out · +1.0 targets (16% of his 6.5)
Expected receptions: 2.3 against 1.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 26, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-10-26 | HOU | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NYG | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 1 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 4 | 75% under | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 75% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.57 books, no line disagreementFD · PX2 · FL · HR · DK · BR · BB
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 1 | under |