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Josh Downs
IND @ MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 44.5 at PrizePicks ·
54Signal · under 44.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
PrizePicks 44.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.0 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 48.2 yds against 44.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 44.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -31| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | SEA | 13 under | −31.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | SF | 65 over | +20.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | JAX | 34 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | HOU | 61 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 37 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 72 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 77 over | +32.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | WAS | 16 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 47 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 40 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
44.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 54.5 to 44.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 44.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 40 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 47 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ WAS | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 77 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 72 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 37 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ HOU | 61 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs JAX | 34 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | vs SF | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SEA | 13 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ JAX | 23 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs HOU | 44 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ KC | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ATL | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 57 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 39 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs ARI | 42 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 54 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 24 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 34 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 51 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 12 | under |