Justice Hill

BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 29.5 ·

52Signal · under 29.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

3 / 10

Underdog 29.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 3.0 a game recently
targets: 2.2 a game recently
vs CIN · ×1.08 yds per carry
vs CIN · ×1.05 yds per target

Expected rush + rec yards: 34.1 yds against 29.5 · over 48%, under 52%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 29.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -48 on the under

Each game against 29.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-12	LA	44 over	+14.5
2025-10-26	CHI	2 under	−27.5
2025-10-30	MIA	15 under	−14.5
2025-11-09	MIN	13 under	−16.5
2026-09-13	IND	28 under	−1.5
2026-09-20	NO	18 under	−11.5
2026-09-27	DAL	33 over	+3.5
2026-10-04	TEN	25 under	−4.5
2026-10-11	ATL	78 over	+48.5
2026-10-18	CLE	9 under	−20.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% under	+3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

29.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 29.5
2026-10-18	@ CLE	9	under
2026-10-11	@ ATL	78	over
2026-10-04	vs TEN	25	under
2026-09-27	@ DAL	33	over
2026-09-20	vs NO	18	under
2026-09-13	@ IND	28	under
2025-11-09	@ MIN	13	under
2025-10-30	@ MIA	15	under
2025-10-26	vs CHI	2	under
2025-10-12	vs LA	44	over
2025-10-05	vs HOU	12	under
2025-09-28	@ KC	117	over
2025-09-22	vs DET	45	over
2025-09-14	vs CLE	25	under
2025-09-07	@ BUF	-11	under