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KC Concepcion
CLE @ PIT · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 43.5 at BetMGM · median 46.5 ·
54Signal · under 43.571% · 5 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 7Cleared the number in 2 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.4 a game recently
- vs PIT · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 44.7 yds against 43.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 43.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -85 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 43 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 28 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CAR | 9 under | −34.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 64 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 5 under | −38.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 37 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | TEN | 129 over | +85.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 7 | 71% under | -1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 71% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 46.5
- BetMGM 43.5
- FanDuel 45.5
- Hard Rock Bet 45.5
- PrizePicks 45.5
- ESPN Bet 46.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 46.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 46.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 46.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 46.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 46.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 46.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 45.5 to 46.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 43.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ TEN | 129 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 37 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 64 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CAR | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 28 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 43 | under |