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KC Concepcion
CLE @ PIT · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Fliff ·
55Signal · under 4.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 7Cleared the number in 3 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.4 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.3 against 4.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CAR | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | TEN | 8 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 7 | 57% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.511 books, no line disagreementDK · MGM · ESPN · HR · FD · FL · PX2 · BR · BB · PK6 · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ TEN | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CAR | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 4 | under |