← NFL board
Keenan Allen
IND @ JAX · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at Bally Bet ·
48Signal · over 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.8 against 4.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | KC | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DAL | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | HOU | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DEN | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | BAL | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | KC | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | PIT | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | TEN | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
4.510 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · ESPN · DK · BB · FD · HR · PK6 · PP · UD· best price at 4.5: PX2 -103
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- FanDuelMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 5.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs TEN | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ PIT | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs HOU | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs BAL | 6 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ DEN | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | vs PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LV | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ JAX | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs PIT | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ TEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-23 | vs MIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs IND | 11 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ MIA | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs WAS | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ NYG | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DEN | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ LV | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-05 | vs KC | 7 | over |