← NFL board
Kenneth Walker III
KC @ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ETCarries · 18.5 at ESPN Bet · median 19.5 ·
48Signal · under 18.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 20.0 a game recently
Expected carries: 20.0 against 18.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 18.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 9 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 11 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 15 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 16 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 23 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 24 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 18 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 22 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 19 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SEA | 14 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +1.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 19.5
- ESPN Bet 18.5
- betPARX 19.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 19.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 19.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 19.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 19.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 19.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 19.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 18.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 18 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 19 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 10 | under |