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Kenneth Walker III
KC @ DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at betPARX ·
56Signal · under 3.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.5 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.0 against 3.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SEA | 4 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 3.5
- BetMGM 2.5
- Hard Rock Bet 2.5
- FanDuel 3.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 3.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 3.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 3.5 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 3.5 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 3.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 3.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- BetMGMMoved from 3.5 to 2.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 3 | under |