← NFL board3 straight over
Kimani Vidal
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETRush + Rec Yards · 33.5 at Bally Bet · median 34.5 ·
47Signal · over 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.3 a game recently
- targets: 3.0 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.99 yds per carry
- vs LA · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 38.0 yds against 33.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -23| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | JAX | 12 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | LV | 137 over | +103.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | PHI | 104 over | +70.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | KC | 48 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | DAL | 11 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DEN | 10 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | BUF | 20 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SEA | 36 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 56 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 40 over | +6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 33.5 · best price BB, PX2 -114
- Bally Bet 33.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 33.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 33.5 -115 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 34.5 -115
- FanDuel 35.5 -110
- Hard Rock Bet 35.5 -110
- DraftKings 35.5 -115
- PrizePicks 35.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 33.5 to 35.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 34.5 to 35.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 33.5 to 35.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 40 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 56 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SEA | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ BUF | 20 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ DEN | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DAL | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ KC | 48 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | vs PHI | 104 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs LV | 137 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ JAX | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs PIT | 108 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ TEN | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-23 | vs MIN | 127 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs IND | 35 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ MIA | 138 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs WAS | 19 | under |