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Kyle Juszczyk
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 11.5 at DraftKings ·
53Signal · under 11.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs ATL · ×0.97 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 15.8 yds against 11.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | LA | 8 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | ARI | 26 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | CLE | 27 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 7 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 14 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 5 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 27 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 0 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 28 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 10 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11.56 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · FL · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 28 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 27 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 27 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 26 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 9 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 21 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 32 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 32 | over |