Kyle Juszczyk

SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 1.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·

43Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 2.0 a game recently

Expected receptions: 1.3 against 1.5 · over 43%, under 57%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.

Last 10 games against 1.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -1.5

Each game against 1.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-09	LA	2 over	+0.5
2025-11-16	ARI	2 over	+0.5
2025-11-30	CLE	2 over	+0.5
2025-12-14	TEN	1 under	−0.5
2025-12-28	CHI	2 over	+0.5
2026-01-03	SEA	1 under	−0.5
2026-09-20	MIA	2 over	+0.5
2026-09-27	ARI	0 under	−1.5
2026-10-04	DEN	2 over	+0.5
2026-10-19	WAS	1 under	−0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	0
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

1.54 books, no line disagreementDK · HR · FD · FL· best price at 1.5: DK +115

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 1.5
2026-10-19	vs WAS	1	under
2026-10-04	vs DEN	2	over
2026-09-27	vs ARI	0	under
2026-09-20	vs MIA	2	over
2026-01-03	vs SEA	1	under
2025-12-28	vs CHI	2	over
2025-12-14	vs TEN	1	under
2025-11-30	@ CLE	2	over
2025-11-16	@ ARI	2	over
2025-11-09	vs LA	2	over
2025-11-02	@ NYG	1	under
2025-10-26	@ HOU	1	under
2025-10-19	vs ATL	1	under
2025-10-12	@ TB	1	under
2025-10-02	@ LA	3	over
2025-09-28	vs JAX	3	over
2025-09-21	vs ARI	1	under
2025-09-14	@ NO	1	under
2025-09-07	@ SEA	2	over