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Kyle Williams
NE @ MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 24.5 at FanDuel ·
55Signal · under 24.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
- vs MIA · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 25.0 yds against 24.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 24.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 22, 2026
Worst miss -66 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | NYG | 33 over | +8.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 46 over | +21.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 20 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 0 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 10 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 34 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 0 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 91 over | +66.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 12 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-22 | CHI | 0 under | −24.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 25.5
- FanDuel 24.5
- Hard Rock Bet 24.5
- Bally Bet 24.5
- betPARX 24.5
- BetRivers 24.5
- ESPN Bet 24.5
- PrizePicks 24.5
- Underdog 24.5
- DraftKings 25.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 25.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 18.5 to 24.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 16.5 to 24.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 18.5 to 25.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 18.5 to 25.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 12 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 91 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 20 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 46 | over |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 33 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 18 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 72 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 12 | under |