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Kyle Williams
NE @ MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at DraftKings ·
58Signal · under 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.0 against 1.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 1, 2025 – Oct 22, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | NYG | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-22 | CHI | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.54 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · HR · ESPN
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | @ CHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 1 | under |