← NFL board3 straight under
Lan Larison
NE @ DET · Sun 9:30 AM ETRush + Rec Yards · 27.5 at Underdog ·
70Signal · under 27.5100% · 3 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
0 / 3Cleared the number in 0 of 3 games, 7 without a result
- TreVeyon Henderson RB is listed Out (illness). He had 30% of NE's carries this season, 8.7 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.0 a game recently → 1.7 this game
- targets: 1.0 a game recently
- Henderson out · +0.7 carries (8% of his 8.7)
- Heavier load · ×0.96 yds per carry
- vs DET · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected rush + rec yards: 8.5 yds against 27.5 · over 20%, under 80%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 27.5 · Sep 9, 2026 – Nov 8, 2026
Tightest clearance +19 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 9 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | MIA | 6 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-11-08 | GB | 4 under | −23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 3 | 100% under | +21 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
27.52 books, no line disagreementDAB · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 27.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | vs GB | 4 | under |
| 2026-11-01 | @ MIA | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 9 | under |