Malik Nabers

NYG @ HOU · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 68.5 at PrizePicks · median 69.5 ·

47Signal · over 68.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 10.2 a game recently
vs HOU · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 81.7 yds against 68.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 68.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -67

Each game against 68.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-09-07	WAS	71 over	+2.5
2025-09-14	DAL	167 over	+98.5
2025-09-21	KC	13 under	−55.5
2025-09-28	LAC	20 under	−48.5
2026-09-13	DAL	69 over	+0.5
2026-09-21	LA	1 under	−67.5
2026-09-27	TEN	26 under	−42.5
2026-10-04	ARI	112 over	+43.5
2026-10-11	WAS	121 over	+52.5
2026-10-18	NO	165 over	+96.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	+8
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

12 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 67.5

Line movement

BetMGMMoved from 68.5 to 67.5
PrizePicksMoved from 74.5 to 68.5
Bally BetMoved from 67.5 to 69.5
betPARXMoved from 67.5 to 69.5
BetRiversMoved from 67.5 to 69.5
FliffMoved from 68.5 to 69.5

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 68.5
2026-10-18	vs NO	165	over
2026-10-11	@ WAS	121	over
2026-10-04	vs ARI	112	over
2026-09-27	vs TEN	26	under
2026-09-21	@ LA	1	under
2026-09-13	vs DAL	69	over
2025-09-28	vs LAC	20	under
2025-09-21	vs KC	13	under
2025-09-14	@ DAL	167	over
2025-09-07	@ WAS	71	over